Rodgers’ arrival only delays the inevitable for Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers finally have their guy.

If that feels like a weird thing to say about a declining 41-year-old quarterback who flirts with retirement annually, it is. Waiting nearly three months for his decision, and passing up any and all alternatives in the meantime, was an especially odd way for a competitive team to resolve its issues at the most important position in sports.

Nevertheless, the Aaron Rodgers experience – and everything that comes with it – will head to Pittsburgh. He reportedly plans to join the team in advance of next week’s mandatory minicamp. Now, the question is whether he’ll prove to have been worth the wait.

It’s understandable that the Steelers felt the need to take a big swing in an attempt to address their quarterback woes. Pittsburgh’s dreadful stretch at the position dates back to early 2019, when a season-ending elbow injury marked the beginning of the end for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers legend would return to play two more years, but he was never quite the same. And the quarterbacks they’ve run out since have been no better.

That underwhelming run has been a thorn in the side of an otherwise consistent team. Head coach Mike Tomlin has been able to extend his streak of 18 straight seasons without a losing record, but the postseason results have become predictable: four playoff berths in the last five years and four first-round exits (all by at least 11 points). The Steelers are hoping that a future Hall of Famer can be the one to help them get over that hump. Coming off a disaster two-year run in New York, is that even a realistic expectation for Rodgers?

The numbers say no.

It wasn’t too long ago that Rodgers appeared to be on a Tom Brady-like path toward immortality, winning back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, his age-37 and -38 seasons. But Father Time was lurking, and his unavoidable descent soon began in earnest.

In 2022, Rodgers threw for a career-worst 217.4 yards per game, set a (short-lived) personal low for passer rating (91.1), and served up 12 interceptions, the most since his first year as a starter in 2008. Those sudden signs of regression, along with a deteriorating relationship between player and team, made the Green Bay Packers more than happy to part ways and turn things over to Jordan Love.

The Jets, desperate to get a quarterback for the first time since, well … ever, were eager to bet Rodgers would bounce back. Any excitement over the blockbuster acquisition was sapped four plays into the 2023 opener when he went down with a torn Achilles. The good vibes ramped up ahead of last season, but it quickly became clear the Jets weren’t getting the player they hoped for. Rodgers’ output plummeted even further over the course of a chaotic 5-12 season.

Steelers fans searching for reasons to be optimistic about this move can point to the fact that Rodgers didn’t have much help on the Jets. They dropped 39 of Rodgers’ passes last season – 11 clear of the second-highest total among quarterbacks and the most for any passer since 2019, according to PFF. Pittsburgh’s offseason trade to acquire DK Metcalf ensures Rodgers has at least one reliable weapon at receiver, but the team subsequently shipped George Pickens to Dallas.

New York’s offensive line ranked 23rd in pass-block win rate last season, according to ESPN, but Rodgers didn’t deliver at a high level from a clean pocket either: He managed 0.01 expected points added per dropback on snaps where he didn’t face pressure, tied for 34th among qualified passers.

Rodgers had some mildly encouraging moments down the stretch, highlighted by a four-touchdown finale against Miami, his first such performance since 2021. But there was also that horrific showing in Buffalo the week prior, where he put together the single worst quarterback performance of the entire season by EPA/dropback (-1.15).

Being another year removed from his Achilles injury could at least slow the deterioration of his fading movement skills. It’s probably a positive that he’s entering a situation where he’ll have less control over scheme and personnel. And Tomlin manages big personalities like no other.

But we’re still talking about a 41-year-old quarterback who’s been in a noticeable decline for multiple seasons. Rodgers hasn’t been among the top half of league starters since 2021, Roethlisberger’s last year in Pittsburgh. The list of quarterbacks who have magically bucked a trend like that at this point of their career is nonexistent.

Even if the stars align for a major rebound, it’s tough to imagine Rodgers’ ceiling as anything higher than league-average quarterback play. That’s not going to be enough for the Steelers to truly challenge the AFC elite in January.

Maybe Rodgers makes a big play here and there, and Pittsburgh stumbles into its first playoff victory since 2017. But with no real upside beyond that, all it would really accomplish is forestalling the inevitable: drafting a new franchise quarterback.

The Steelers better hope that none of the rookies they passed up in April come flying out of the gate this season. There’s plenty of room for this drawn-out Rodgers chase to end up looking even more misguided than it already does.

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