The countdown to the Cheltenham Festival is on. With less than a month to go until the famous roar echoes around Prestbury Park, both novice and experienced National Hunt racing enthusiasts alike will have already started scouring the internet for ante-post bets and tips.
You’d be forgiven for looking at the main races and thinking that they are already forgone conclusions.
Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle), Jonbon (Champion Chase), Fact To File (Ryanair Chase), Teauhpoo (Stayers’ Hurdle), and Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup) all have solid claims.
However, this is the pinnacle of jumps racing, and there are bound to be upsets throughout the four-day extravaganza. Let’s take the day two feature, for example.
Just one of the last five favourites in the Champion Chase odds has gone on to win the premier two-mile contest.
Thus, Nicky Henderson’s likeable Jonbon—who, despite being in good form ahead of the Cheltenham Festival—might not be as comfortable as he looks at 5/6.
The pressure is on the JP McManus-owned horse to finally secure that elusive Festival victory, but let’s take a look at three outsiders who could upset the applecart.
Solness – 12/1
While Solness was well beaten by Jonbon in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown in December, his recent form back home in Ireland makes it somewhat of a surprise that he’s as big as 12/1 for the Champion Chase.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained seven-year-old, who has already had seven runs this season, has been in remarkable form on his last two outings at Leopardstown—causing an almighty upset when winning the Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at the Christmas Festival from 28/1.
He proved that was no fluke when following up at the prestigious Dublin Racing Festival at the beginning of February, landing the Dublin Chase from Marine Nationale by two lengths in a game performance under Danny Mullins.
He’s beaten Gaelic Warrior comfortably in those two races, yet Willie Mullins’ former Arkle winner remains the 13/2 third favourite. There certainly seems to be a bit of value, therefore, on Solness at 12s.
El Fabiolo – 14/1
You’d have to be a brave person to back El Fabiolo based on last year’s performance in the Queen Mother Champion Chase when he was pulled up early by Paul Townend or his recent fall in the Dublin Chase, but can you really rule him out?
The eight-year-old’s jumping let him down on those occasions, but when he goes around a track fluently, he’s never finished outside the top two.
He has managed that nicely at Cheltenham before as well, beating none other than Jonbon by over five lengths in the 2023 renewal of the Arkle.
El Fabiolo finished four lengths adrift of Jonbon when they last met in the Celebration Chase at the end of last season when his jumping once again proved costly. But if he can stay on his feet, 14/1 is a good each-way price in the racing odds.
Marine Nationale – 14/1
Like El Fabiolo, Marine Nationale is a bit of a risky selection for the Queen Mother Champion Chase based on what we’ve seen from him over the larger obstacles these last couple of years.
The Barry Connell-owned/trained eight-year-old lit up the Cheltenham Festival when impressively winning the 2023 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but is yet to really hit the heights expected of him over fences.
Marine Nationale did win his Chase debut at Leopardstown but was fifth of six runners next time in the Irish Arkle and was ruled out for the rest of his novice season.
His consistency this season suggests that the penny is starting to drop over the larger obstacles, as he’s placed on all three starts in Graded contests, and he’s heading back to Prestbury Park in good form.
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