Part of the “joy” of becoming an engineer is the endless math classes. To this day, I insist that I’m not good with numbers, but calculations have become second nature after countless hours of studying (almost) every principle. Sometimes, we got some easy lessons, though. Take the transitive property, for example.
The rule is simple: if A equals B, and B equals C, then A has to equal C. No exceptions. No surprises. We do this in fantasy football all the time, to varying degrees of success. A defense struggles against slot receivers last week, so our guy will go off in the following game.
Advertisement
But football doesn’t work that way. Every Sunday is a new variable. We’ll come in with our assumptions built from linking past pieces of data, and the action sends us in a completely new direction. So, let’s look at the storylines from Sunday that broke the Week 4 equation, and figure out where they point us next.
The Volatility of a Wide Receiver
Let’s apply the thought process I brought up in the intro to a couple of today’s games.
Cincinnati’s defense looked like the 2025 iteration of the unit against the Steelers. Missed tackles, defenders running into each other — all of the goodwill from the first two weeks was (almost) gone. On the flip side, Jacksonville’s passing game dismantled the Patriots in Week 3. With Parker Washington headlining the receiver group (29.9% target rate through three weeks), you couldn’t pry him from a starting lineup.
Advertisement
But Cincinnati knew he was the Jaguars’ WR1, too.
If the box score for Brenton Strange or either of the Jags’ RBs is any indication, the strength of the Bengals’ defense is their corners. Coming into the game, Dax Hill was forcing the eighth-worst passer rating for QBs targeting the slot. DJ Turner was allowing the 14th-fewest yards per catch. Coincidentally, those two were in coverage on two-thirds of Washington’s targets. Otherwise, nothing changed for Washington.
-
Route Rate: 85.2% (Week 4), 87.4% (Weeks 1-3)
Cincinnati came in with the right game plan to limit Jacksonville’s top receiver. And it shows not just in Washington’s output, but in Trevor Lawrence’s, too. Despite the Bengals only getting pressure on him five times, Lawrence took four sacks from holding the ball. Those are adjustments the offense can make after a week of film study.
Advertisement
But it’s not so simple for Josh Downs.
Admittedly, a single interception doesn’t tell the whole story. But the mechanics behind the pick were on display from the first snap. Even worse for Downs, HC Shane Steichen’s approach to beating Washington’s secondary favored the Colts’ slot man. Jones averaged his quickest time to throw of the season (2.41 seconds) and shortest passing depth (3.9 air yards). Keenan Allen wasn’t even active to take away reps. And yet, Downs found himself near the bottom of the totem pole again.
-
Laquon Treadwell (on quick throws): 27.8% (target share)
Downs running 35 or more routes in a single game since Week 9 of last year didn’t matter. Dulin’s routes and targets jumped with Allen out. We know Tyler Warren can operate as a slot receiver, but Deion Burks (33.3% slot rate) was on hand to take away reps from Downs.
Advertisement
Jones’ performance is just one layer of the issues for our favorite interior receiver. Adding in more receivers only complicates things further.
Our Stars Can Still Shine
If there’s any illustration of “WR volatility,” it’s Tetairoa McMillan going from a roster liability to the (likely) WR1 of the week. But an all-time performance like that deserves its own section.
Point of fact. I was never wrong in calling McMillan a WR1 — just early. But this one we all saw coming. Ahead of SNF, the second-year receiver and Jalen Coker had accounted for 41.7% of Bryce Young’s targets and 51.1% of the air yards. Coker’s quad injury kept him on the sideline, putting McMillan in place to consolidate the volume on himself. I didn’t think he’d take that literally.
Advertisement
-
Target Rate (in Week 4): 41.0%
I mentioned his snaps from the interior, as I suspected that the game plan would be to get Young and McMillan into a rhythm with some layups. That was partially true. Their first connection was on an outbreaker from the inside. Afterward, they were unstoppable. But the potential building block for Young to take into the bye week comes in how he dealt with pressure.
-
Week 1 (when pressured): 8.8 (passing depth), 37.5% (success rate)
To their credit, the Lions kept Young on his toes. They pressured him on 14 of his 45 dropbacks, with 10 of those coming within 2.5 seconds. Last week, in those same situations, if the ball wasn’t going to McMillan, it was going to pass catchers with a combined eight targets to start the season (Darren Waller, Brycen Tremayne, Mitchell Evans and John Metchie III). With time to get in sync, that group turned in eight first downs to complement McMillan.
Like our review of Parker Washington’s day from before, receivers work in concert with each other. And having multiple options to stress a defense increases the size of the production pie for everyone. Let’s hope we see Coker back on the other side of the bye week. However, if he needs more time, Young and McMillan have answers to keep the offense afloat.
Advertisement
Jameis Is Still Jameis (Complimentary)
We all watched Jameis Winston come in relief of Jaxson Dart during MNF. Winston might’ve left his accuracy on the bench. But if Sunday was any indication, he just needed some time to adjust to being a QB1 again.
Two takeaways from Winston’s second full start. First, his comfort with the receivers is picking up. Twenty of his 29 passes (69.0%) wound up as catches. Well, two throws went to a guy in white and red, but that’s part of the Jameis Experience. Regardless, his improvement shows up in the numbers, too.
-
Week 3: 63.6% (Completion Rate), -4.8% (CPOE), 5.5 (aDOT)
-
Week 4: 62.1%, +1.3%, 11.1
Arizona pushed the Giants into a vintage Winston performance with throws all over the field. But when you have high-end options like Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, with a budding receiver like Malachi Fields behind them, you’d want to see your QB challenging defenses downfield. That’s where raw completion percentage only tells part of the story. Maintaining accuracy while throwing downfield is the stark contrast necessary to build confidence. An increase in play volume, specifically pass attempts, gives off a similar vibe.
Advertisement
-
Week 1 (w/ Dart): -4.3% (PROE), 67.7% (Passing Success Rate)
-
Week 3 (w/ Winston): -19.4%, 28.0%
Remember, this isn’t the “Tampa-Bay-Todd-Monken-Pass-First-Pass-Often” version of Winston. OC Matt Nagy called a conservative game for Dart in Week 1. And after his injury, the game plan swung away from passing against the Titans. However, the shift back, combined with the bump in efficiency, puts the Giants (and us, by extension) on a new trajectory.
Winston gets the Commanders and Saints over his next three games before the bye. Both teams have offenses that can set up an environment like Sunday’s. Neither has a limiting defense. At worst, the Giants’ QB1 is a viable streamer, and his pass-catchers return to their normal spots in the ranks. With more time, Winston could be their (fantasy) savior.
Kenneth Walker, (Kansas City’s) MVP
I had two thoughts watching the Chiefs-Raiders game. First, after attending the live performance of my Bengals failing to make a comeback against Jacksonville, it must be nice to have a team that can gut out close wins. Second, Kansas City will need more of Kenneth Walker over the rest of the regular season.
Walker has yet to have a game without multiple scores or to cross the century mark as a runner. He’s averaging 134.3 rushing yards per game; to put that in perspective, David Montgomery has 127 through four weeks. Of the six RBs with 70 or more carries, only Derrick Henry has found the end zone more times than Walker.
Advertisement
If Walker’s on your roster, his contributions are one of the main drivers for your success. The Chiefs can say the same about their 4-0 record.
-
Week 1: 52.6% (Share of KC First Downs), 50.0% (Share of KC Explosive Plays)
Bijan Robinson is the only RB who beats Walker in both categories mentioned above. Looking at the state of both offenses, this makes sense! Until Michael Penix Jr. returned, Atlanta was averaging 123.5 passing YPG. A reliance on its rusher, as a runner and receiver, was the reasonable recourse. The Chiefs have their QB, but the receiving unit has underperformed. Plus, they’ll be down at least one pass-catcher for the foreseeable future.
While we couldn’t rely on either for our purposes, Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice account for 16.6% of the Chiefs’ first downs. And Thornton was on the upswing before his catastrophic ankle injury.
Advertisement
The Rams responded to losing multiple receivers with a career-high 13 targets to Kyren Williams. While we shouldn’t expect a similar total for Walker, an increase in his usage as a receiver should be on our radar.
Intent vs. Result
“Teams take on the identity of their QB and/or HC.”
Sigmund Bloom taught me that years ago, and I’m struggling to find an instance where it doesn’t apply. Chicago’s a prime example. It’s through two weeks (wins!) without Caleb Williams. But the Bears offense is still on a roll.
Now, after handing the Eagles a loss and then taking on the Jets, Chicago hasn’t had a murderer’s row of defenses to face. But HC Ben Johnson has still had to structure his offense around the challenges each pass rush or secondary posed. The same is true for the differing styles of his QBs.
Advertisement
-
Week 1 w/ Williams: -1.7% (PROE), 9.6 (Passing aDOT)
-
Week 3 w/ Keenum: +6.5%, 5.9
-
Week 4 w/ Bagent: -7.1%, 5.1
Caleb Williams is a big-game hunter. His backups are either a veteran game manager or a young buck learning the ropes. Both have an understanding of how the offense works. But neither has been looking to push the boundaries. Since Week 1, there have been five throws of 20 air yards or more. Williams hit that same mark on his own in the season opener (without an interception to go with it). Instead, the passing game has been on time and within structure. Accordingly, our preferred pass-catchers have to come to life.
-
Target Share (Weeks 3-4): 26.2% (Burden), 20.0% (Odunze), 20.0% (Loveland)
-
Targets per Route Run: 32.7%, 20.6%, 25.0%
-
Route Depths: 9.7, 9.0, 6.8
To be clear, highlighting boosts to the Big Three’s opportunity shares isn’t to indicate differing preferences between the three QBs. Remember, Loveland became a fantasy darling with Williams last year. The intent hasn’t been to feature Kalif Raymond. That’s just what worked.
Burden’s absence throughout part of the preseason, leading to this ramp-up, shouldn’t surprise anyone. But let’s take it a step further. Instead of running short-area routes in Weeks 1 and 2 (5.0 aDOT), overlapping with Loveland, he’s getting farther downfield. With two healthy WRs, Chicago can lean into its heavy personnel sets (48.3% 12-personnel and 21.3%-personnel rates in Week 4, highest of the season).
Williams may change how deep the targets go when he returns, but our priors about the intent of the offense may still be intact.
You can view the original article HERE.
