With the regular season right around the corner, now is the time to learn about baseball betting. With so many games on a daily basis, it can feel impossible to pick a winner with any regularity. But what if there were a few stats that could help you?
While checking out MLB betting odds, there are a few particular tips that can help you succeed. Wrap up the excitement from the World Baseball Classic and put your focus on winning big during the regular season.
Plus-money underdogs are your friend
Bettors have to win at least 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 odds) in order to win betting on basketball and football. The good news is that you can get away with winning less but still turning a profit by betting on the plus-money underdogs (+110, +120, +140, etc.) on a regular basis.
Sure, a loss is a loss. But consider that when you win, you are getting your bet plus some. Taking the favorites might be a “safer” pick but you are getting far less of a return. By taking the underdogs regularly, you can give yourself better returns over the long run. Even winning at a 47% clip can produce a serious positive in units won.
Avoid the big favorites
Odds makers are smart. They understand that the casual betting public will always skew toward the favorite. Because of this popular teams – the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. – will always be overpriced because the average bettor knows them. That means taking them even if they are -150 or -200.
Since 2005, regular-season favorites of -150 or higher have hit at a 63% rate. That certainly seems impressive, right? But when you consider the return, that rate turns out a huge loser over time. While the favorites might seem like the safest play possible, the return is not worth it.
Divisional underdogs
In the MLB, teams play their division rivals on a far more frequent basis. Because of this, there is greater familiarity and the playing field becomes much more even. In the end, this works to benefit the underdog. In division games since 2005, underdogs have lost nearly 10x fewer units than they have against opponents outside the division.
Don’t just limit it to divisional underdogs, however. Consider the road team (since the public puts value on home-field advantage) and a higher total. Since there are more runs expected, the variance is higher, giving the underdog a built-in advantage. It is important to remember that you are not necessarily looking for winners over a 50% clip. Because you are taking the underdog, and the better odds, your winnings will wind up paying out more than losing on an underdog would.
Patience is crucial across a long season. Keep your eye on the prize and stick with the underdogs, especially in the division. You should see a positive outcome in units won over the season.
Go against public favor
This is a trend that is not necessarily limited to baseball betting. The trend is that, when the majority of the action is on one side, it usually goes on things like popular franchises, teams with star players, home teams, etc.
The contrarian pick tends to focus on underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the action. Since 2007, that has led to a positive outcome in units won even though they have only hit at a 43% rate. Remember, you’re about winning money, not necessarily winning bets regularly. Betting against the public can be one of the best moves you make to provide bigger winnings with less need to hit.
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