It felt like a huge result for Tottenham on Sunday night.
Their 2-1 victory at Aston Villa moved Spurs out of the Premier League relegation zone – and marked two wins in a row for the first time since the second weekend of the season.
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With three weeks remaining of the 2025-26 campaign, it looks like the battle to avoid the drop will go down to the wire.
Wolves and Burnley have already been consigned to the Championship for next season, but one more relegation place is still to be decided.
West Ham‘s 3-0 defeat by Brentford on Saturday opened the door for Tottenham to climb out of the bottom three – and Roberto de Zerbi’s side took full advantage.
Former Man City defender Micah Richards told BBC Match of the Day: “That’s a huge result for Spurs. I didn’t see that coming.
“Villa were poor, but right from the start Spurs absolutely made the most of it with their desire and intensity. They were exceptional in how they set up, they were really brave.
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“Every time we make a prediction, we get it wrong – but West Ham have got it all to do.
“Spurs have maybe got a bit of momentum and they have set their standard. De Zerbi deserves a lot of credit. None of his players hid and he has given them that confidence.”
Former England striker Alan Shearer added: “They won every single tackle, every single second ball and they took the risk out of their game by not playing from the back in certain circumstances.
“You need every single player at it when in desperate trouble and Spurs had that. It has been a terrible weekend for West Ham.”
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Nottingham Forest in 16th have played one game fewer than both Spurs and West Ham, and could go six points clear of the drop zone with a win against Chelsea on Monday (15:00 BST).
Leeds are 14th in the table with 43 points and Crystal Palace are just below them on goal difference but with a game in hand, so it looks like it will be a three-way battle between Forest, West Ham and Spurs.
Nottingham Forest: 16th, 39 points
Forest are in the in-form side of those battling against the drop.
Vitor Pereira’s team are unbeaten in their past six league games, winning three of them.
However, unlike West Ham and Spurs, they do have a European campaign that could potentially distract them.
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Forest are halfway to securing a place in the Europa League final after beating Villa 1-0 in the first leg of their semi-final on Thursday.
Playing a major European final in Istanbul on Wednesday, 20 May, might not be ideal preparation for a potentially must-win game on the final day of the Premier League season four days later.
Tottenham Hotspur: 17th, 37 points
Tottenham had been in free-fall since new year, with a run of 15 games without a win plunging them into trouble.
A 3-0 defeat by relegation rivals Forest cost Igor Tudor his job, but it was a 1-0 loss to Sunderland in De Zerbi’s first match in the dugout that saw Spurs drop into the relegation zone for the first time.
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After a last-gasp Brighton equaliser left some Tottenham players in tears, De Zerbi’s side scraped past bottom club Wolves to claim a first league win of 2026 and give hope to their increasingly apathetic fans.
Sunday’s win at Villa will leave Spurs fans with real confidence they are hitting form at just the right time.
West Ham: 18th, 36 points
West Ham had been building momentum since the international break, with wins against Wolves and Everton and a draw with Crystal Palace.
But Saturday’s 3-0 defeat by Brentford was a serious blow to their survival hopes – even though they could argue they deserved something from a frantic contest having hit the woodwork four times.
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Seeing their three-match unbeaten run ended would have been bad enough, but West Ham’s weekend went from bad to worse when they dropped back into the relegation zone after Tottenham’s victory at Villa.
And you wonder what psychological effect that might have for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side – especially given their next league game is against leaders Arsenal.
However, the Hammers have shown plenty of fight in recent weeks and will still believe they can claw themselves back to safety.
Who has the toughest run-in?
All three relegation candidates will play two of their remaining games at home – but on paper it looks like Forest have the toughest run-in.
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After facing Chelsea (ninth) at Stamford Bridge on Monday, Pereira’s side host Newcastle (13th) and then travel to Manchester United (third).
On the final day of the season Forest play European hopefuls Bournemouth (sixth) at the City Ground.
West Ham must pick themselves up from the damaging loss to Brentford before hosting league leaders Arsenal at London Stadium.
The Hammers then travel to face Newcastle (13th) at St James’ Park, before finishing the season at home against Leeds (14th).
Tottenham play Leeds at home, Chelsea away and then host Everton (11th) on the final day.
How many points will secure safety?
In each of the past nine Premier League seasons, 36 points have been enough to secure survival.
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In the 20-team era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival by finishing 17th is 35.53.
But that tally will not cut it this season, given West Ham already have 36 points, Spurs 37 and Forest 39.
In the 30 Premier League 38-game seasons, 36 points have ensured survival 60% of the time.
That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era – in 2002-03, the Hammers picked up 42 points but still went down.
According to data experts Opta the Hammers are now strong favourites (75.1%) to be relegated this term, with Tottenham at 22.5% and Forest just 2.3%.
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